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Potential Breakup Looms for Google: What Will Happen Next?

Reports have surfaced indicating that the U.S. government is advocating for the breakup of tech giant Google following a recent ruling by a federal judge that found the company guilty of monopolizing the search engine market through illegal commercial deals. This development has the potential to significantly impact the advertising industry, although the final outcome of this case remains uncertain as Google plans to challenge the ruling.

According to sources within the Justice Department, lawyers are pushing for a complete dismantling of Google, a move that could reshape the $300 billion online ad industry. This push comes in the wake of allegations that Google leveraged its ad tech tools, such as its ad exchange and publisher ad server, to dominate the programmatic ad market. Google has refuted these claims, setting the stage for a contentious legal battle.

Leading up to the trial set to commence on September 9th, Digiday conducted a survey among industry professionals who regularly interact with Google, including agency staffers, brand marketers, retailers, publishers, and tech professionals. The survey revealed that a significant portion of respondents believe that Chrome could potentially replace Google Ads Manager if the DOJ pursues further divestiture of Google’s ad stack. Additionally, there are concerns about potential revenue losses for publishers and the emergence of independent rivals in the ad tech space.

In a separate survey conducted by Digiday, opinions were divided on the likelihood of Google offering a voluntary divestiture, with a majority of respondents expressing skepticism about such a move. However, there is a belief among some that Google may seek to reach a settlement with antitrust authorities before the court case in Virginia begins. This strategic decision could have far-reaching implications for the company and the industry at large.

Amidst speculation about potential concessions from Google’s legal team, including allowing third-party demand-side platforms to bid on YouTube inventory, it appears that any such offers have been rebuffed. The outcome of the impending trial and the possibility of dealmaking in the antitrust cases will undoubtedly shape the future of internet advertising. Many industry insiders draw parallels to Microsoft’s antitrust battles with the U.S. government in the late 90s and early 2000s, which resulted in significant resource allocation and product development stagnation for the tech giant.

As the legal proceedings unfold and negotiations continue behind closed doors, the fate of Google and the broader advertising ecosystem hangs in the balance. The industry awaits the resolution of these complex issues with bated breath, knowing that the outcome will have lasting repercussions for all stakeholders involved.

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