The domestic stock market is abuzz with anticipation as investors gear up to react to global cues next week. All eyes are on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 23, 2024. The market is eagerly awaiting hints about potential interest rate cuts and their timing, size, and pace.
Currently, the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a 30% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. However, there remains some uncertainty surrounding the exact timing and magnitude of the rate reduction. The recent weak NFP payroll data has increased expectations for a rate cut, but the specifics are yet to be seen.
Analysts believe that the Nifty index is likely to track gains in the US stock market. As the global economy softens, the possibility of a „soft landing“ is increasing, which could benefit emerging markets like India. A rate cut by the Fed would further bolster market sentiment and drive up stock prices.
In addition to global cues, India’s infrastructure output data for July will be released on Friday, August 30, 2024. Infrastructure output in India saw a 4% year-on-year increase in June 2024, following a 6.3% rise in May. Furthermore, India’s Q2 GDP data will also be released on the same day. The Indian economy expanded by 7.8% in Q1 of 2024, continuing the trend of strong growth.
Looking at global cues, US durable goods orders data for July will be released on Monday, August 26, 2024. Japan’s consumer confidence data for August will be released on Friday, August 30, 2024. Additionally, the US Core PCE Price Index for July, US personal income data for July, and US personal spending data for July will all be released on Friday, August 30, 2024.
Overall, the upcoming week is poised to be an eventful one for the domestic stock market as it reacts to global cues and economic data releases. Investors will be closely monitoring developments to make informed decisions in the ever-changing market landscape.
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In conclusion, the market is brimming with anticipation as investors await crucial information that could impact stock prices and market sentiment. Stay tuned for updates as the week unfolds, and be prepared for potential market movements based on the latest developments.