Global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to peak this year, according to a report by consultancy DNV. This milestone is attributed to falling costs for solar and batteries, which are driving a shift away from coal-fired power and oil use. The report, released on October 9, 2024, highlights the importance of this development in the context of rising global CO2 emissions and the urgent need to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The rise in global CO2 emissions has been a cause for concern among experts and climate scientists, as it has made achieving the 1.5-degree Celsius target increasingly difficult. DNV’s report suggests that even if emissions peak this year, a slow decline thereafter could still result in a warming of 2.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This underscores the need for continued efforts to reduce emissions and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources.
One of the key drivers behind the peak in emissions is the rapid growth of solar photovoltaic and battery technologies. In 2023, new solar installations surged by 80% to reach 400 gigawatts, with costs in many regions becoming cheaper than coal. The falling prices of batteries have also made 24-hour solar and storage power more accessible, further incentivizing the shift towards renewable energy.
Battery prices fell by 14% last year and are expected to continue dropping, making electric vehicles more affordable. China, the world’s largest consumer of coal and the biggest emitter of CO2, has been leading the way in solar installations and electric vehicle purchases. As the country continues to invest in solar and wind energy, its dependence on fossil fuels is expected to decline rapidly.
Remi Eriksen, DNV’s group president and chief executive, emphasized the role of solar PV and batteries in driving the energy transition. He highlighted the significance of emissions peaking as a milestone for humanity but stressed the need to focus on accelerating the decline in emissions and leveraging available tools to expedite the energy transition.
In the broader context, major oil and gas companies like BP and Shell have also forecasted peak CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the coming years. BP predicts a peak in emissions in the middle of this decade, while Shell estimates a peak in CO2 emissions from energy use, industrial processes, and land use by 2030. These projections align with the overall trend towards decarbonization and the transition to cleaner energy sources.
Overall, the report by DNV signals a positive development in the fight against climate change, with global energy-related CO2 emissions expected to peak this year. However, it also underscores the need for continued efforts to reduce emissions and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources to limit global warming and mitigate the impacts of climate change.