The real estate sector in 2024 has seen a moderate performance so far, with the S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) advancing 5.5% year to date as of Aug 6. This marks a turnaround from the sector’s decline in the first part of the year, with optimism surrounding the Fed’s potential rate cuts and falling mortgage rates driving the positive momentum.
Buoyed by signals from the Fed, the benchmark 30-year average mortgage rate recently fell to 6.5%, its lowest level since May 2023. Further, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.3%, its lowest since April 2023. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has revised its forecast for mortgage rates upward, expecting the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.9% in the coming months. NAR also anticipates moderately lower mortgage rates, higher home sales, and price stability in the second half of 2024.
Despite these positive developments, nearly three-quarters of responders on CME’s FedWatch Tool now expect a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in September, a significant shift from previous expectations. This change comes in light of concerning labor market data released recently. The market currently anticipates at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could further lower mortgage rates.
Even in the unlikely event of a recession, a higher inventory of homes could lead to lower prices, making it an attractive time for first-time buyers to enter the market. As such, investors may want to consider allocating part of their investments to promising stocks in the real estate sector.
Our top picks in the real estate sector include Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO), Tanger Inc. (SKT), and Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX). These stocks have shown positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days and hold either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy).
Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) is a real estate investment trust that focuses on mortgage servicing rights, residential mortgage-backed securities, and other financial assets. TWO has an expected earnings growth rate of 257.1% for the current year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings surging 118.6% over the past 60 days. TWO currently holds a Zacks Rank #1.
Tanger Inc. (SKT) is a real estate investment trust primarily investing in shopping centers. SKT has an expected earnings growth rate of 5.1% for the current year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings remaining unchanged over the past 60 days. SKT currently holds a Zacks Rank #2.
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) is a mortgage real estate investment trust with an expected earnings growth rate of 205.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 33.3% over the past 60 days, and DX currently holds a Zacks Rank #2.
For more investment recommendations and insights, investors can turn to Zacks Investment Research for the latest updates and analysis. With the real estate sector showing signs of improvement and potential for growth, these stocks could be worth considering for investors looking to capitalize on the current market trends.