In recent weeks, technology stocks have experienced a rebound, but megacap names like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) have seen their shares fall as investors begin to question the staying power of artificial intelligence (AI). Shares of Google parent Alphabet have dropped by 14%, while Amazon shares are down about 8%, and Microsoft stock has fallen more than 7% as of Thursday’s close. Despite this, Nvidia earnings, scheduled to be released later this month, could potentially be the next big catalyst for Big Tech and the AI trade overall.
According to Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley, Nvidia’s performance could have a significant impact on the AI trade, potentially more so than any hyperscaler. Unlike software firms, Nvidia has not had any issues with revenue. However, if the company falls short of Wall Street’s already high expectations, it could potentially bring down the AI trend with it.
While Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft may be causing some investors to hesitate with their AI spending, Nvidia is benefiting from this trend, as it is the leading provider of high-powered AI chips. The company’s Hopper AI chips are highly sought after in the market, and they are set to increase production of their Blackwell line later this year. Reuters reports that Nvidia controls between 80% to 95% of the market for high-powered AI chips, indicating that many companies investing in AI capabilities are likely utilizing Nvidia’s processors.
However, Nvidia’s upcoming second-quarter report marks the beginning of several quarters of challenging year-over-year revenue growth comparisons. In the company’s fiscal Q2 2024, revenue reached $13.5 billion, a 101% increase year over year, with data center revenue exceeding $10.3 billion, up by 141%. Subsequent quarters have seen even more impressive year-over-year gains, with the most recent quarter reporting revenue of $26 billion, a 262% increase from the previous year.
For the upcoming second-quarter report, Wall Street analysts are anticipating revenue of $28.6 billion, a 112% year-over-year jump. While this still represents a significant increase in revenue, it is not as remarkable as the growth seen in previous quarters, which could potentially deter some investors.
Despite this, Nvidia is still expected to continue generating substantial revenue, and Wall Street remains optimistic about the company. As of Thursday, 66 analysts had Buy ratings on Nvidia’s stock, with only seven Hold ratings and one Sell rating.
In conclusion, while megacap tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are experiencing a decline in their shares due to investor concerns about AI spending, Nvidia remains a key player in the AI market. The company’s upcoming earnings report could have a significant impact on the AI trade and the tech industry as a whole, making it a stock to watch in the coming weeks.