In a recent tweet, Peter Schiff expressed concern over the July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) plunging to its lowest level since April 2020. However, upon closer examination of the CFNAI data and its historical trends, it becomes evident that the recent data point is not as irregular as Schiff suggests. The CFNAI is known for its breadth of economic indicators across all major sectors of the economy, making it a valuable tool for assessing economic activity.
The Chicago Fed typically considers periods of economic expansion to be when the three-month moving average of the CFNAI is above -0.35. While the recent reading is near this threshold, it is important to note that the CFNAI tends to be volatile. Despite the „unexpected plunge,“ the three-month moving average only fell by 0.01 to -0.07, which is still well above the -0.35 level. This indicates that the recent reading may not be as concerning as initially perceived.
One of the reasons why the CFNAI is favored by economists is its ability to provide a comprehensive overview of the economy by incorporating various indicators. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of economic trends and helps to contextualize individual data points. While Schiff’s comments may raise eyebrows, it is essential to consider the broader context and trends when interpreting economic data.
Moving on to the topic of cash on the sidelines, there is a common belief that a significant amount of cash waiting to be invested will fuel a stock market rally. However, this argument is debunked by the fact that if the money on the sidelines were to buy stocks, it would simply replace the cash of the sellers. Additionally, while the amount of cash in money market funds has increased over the years, so has the size of the asset markets. As a percentage of the S&P 500 market cap, money market fund balances remain relatively stable, casting doubt on the notion of a cash-driven stock market surge.
Employee sentiment is another area of concern highlighted in recent surveys. Pessimistic data from the University of Michigan sentiment survey and the Federal Reserve of New York’s labor survey indicate growing negative sentiment in the labor markets. Weak sentiment regarding wages, job security, and overall job satisfaction can have a ripple effect on consumer confidence and, ultimately, the economy. It will be crucial to monitor broader consumer sentiment surveys and retail sales data to gauge the impact of these trends on the economy.
In conclusion, while there may be pockets of concern in the economy, it is essential to approach data analysis with a critical eye and consider broader trends and context. Economic indicators like the CFNAI provide valuable insights into the state of the economy, but they should be interpreted in conjunction with other data points to form a comprehensive understanding. As we navigate through uncertain economic times, staying informed and vigilant will be key to making informed decisions.