The European Union is tightening regulations regarding the use of vehicles powered by combustion engines in transportation, prompting manufacturers to include zero-emission solutions in their portfolios for several years now. Two key technologies to achieve this goal are Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), according to the authors of the IDTechEx study „Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts.“
BEV, or Battery Electric Vehicle, is essentially the highest form of vehicle electrification. There is no combustion engine here; instead, one or more electric motors power the vehicle. Energy is drawn from a battery with a capacity typically ranging from 40-100 kWh, which needs to be recharged. This can be done in various ways, from a standard home outlet to a wallbox, or even from public charging stations capable of delivering 50 kW or more. It is an electric vehicle in the truest sense of the word.
FCEV, or Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle, is an electric vehicle powered by fuel cells. It is primarily used in the USA to refer to hydrogen-powered vehicles that utilize hydrogen fuel cells for propulsion instead of electric batteries. The market for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) has been rapidly growing in recent years. It is worth noting that within just one year, the number of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles increased by almost 293 percent.
However, this significant leap was attributed to a low or even stealthy base, meaning the increase in the number of FCEV commercial vehicles from 14 in 2021 to 55 the following year, according to the Clean Hydrogen Monitor 2023 report by Hydrogen Europe.
The IDTechEx report titled „Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts“ examines the market for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) on the road, including passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, medium and heavy-duty trucks, and buses. The report delves into market drivers, barriers, players, technologies, models, benchmarking, and forecasts for the next 20 years for unit sales, fuel cell demand, battery demand, and market value.
In response to the threat posed by climate change and poor air quality in cities, many countries are tightening emissions regulations to reduce the impact of road transportation. This legislation compels automakers to move away from traditional combustion engines and transition to zero-emission power units. Two key technologies to achieve this goal are Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV).
While the market for purely battery electric vehicles is gaining traction in many transportation segments, the energy density limits of lithium-ion batteries mean that the range of battery electric vehicles is limited by the maximum weight of batteries a vehicle can carry and the available space for batteries in the vehicle. Fuel cell technologies offer automakers a path to longer vehicle range while significantly reducing exhaust emissions on the road.
Another significant advantage of fuel cell systems is that refueling hydrogen tanks is similar to refueling conventional combustion engine vehicles (a few minutes) and is significantly faster than relatively slow electric charging, which can take several hours. The range and refueling advantage of FCEV could be particularly crucial for the viability of heavy-duty trucks and buses with zero emissions, where there is a requirement for high daily range, long operating hours, and the need for operational flexibility.
Personal vehicles with fuel cells
Progress in the market for personal vehicles with fuel cells has been largely driven by Toyota and Hyundai, following the departure of the Honda Clarity model in 2021. Many other major automakers have invested in this technology over the past 30 years, including Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW. Toyota and Hyundai accounted for the overwhelming majority of global FCEV sales in 2021 and 2022, with approximately 15,000 vehicles sold each year.
Global sales of FCEV. Progress was driven by South Korea and California in the USA. Source: IDTechEx
China is witnessing a growing interest in FCEV vehicles, and several automakers are now showcasing models that could potentially succeed in the future given China’s support for a hydrogen economy.
While battery electric vehicles, whose development actually began around the same time as FCEV, saw over 7.7 million units sold in 2022, IDTechEx predicts that fuel cell electric vehicles will experience growth in the forecasted period, remaining a very small portion of zero-emission vehicles, with BEVs holding the majority share.
Hydrogen production
The introduction of fuel cell vehicles faces significant challenges, including reducing the costs of fuel cell system components to lower the initial costs of fuel cell vehicles and establishing sufficient infrastructure for hydrogen refueling to make FCEV driving feasible. The availability of cheap „green“ hydrogen, produced by electrolyzing water using electricity from renewable sources, will be crucial for FCEVs to provide environmental certificates on which they are sold, according to an analysis in the new IDTechEx report.
The most advanced, cheapest, and most scalable method currently available for hydrogen production is steam methane reforming (natural gas). H2 produced by this method is known as „gray hydrogen.“ However, this process generates a significant amount of CO2, meaning that the carbon footprint of FCEVs using gray hydrogen would offer very limited potential for emission reductions compared to modern internal combustion engine vehicles. This IDTechEx report addresses hydrogen production and renewable energy and analyzes CO2 emissions generated per kilometer for BEVs and FCEVs under various assumptions. FCEVs make sense in terms of emission reduction only if the hydrogen used is green, and gray hydrogen can make them comparable to existing diesel engines.
Despite significant challenges for the FCEV market, many governments worldwide are providing significant support for the development of zero-emission vehicles, with several major economies including Japan, Korea, Germany, and China supporting efforts for a comprehensive transition from fossil fuels to a broader hydrogen economy. With government support, growing interest from major multinational energy companies realizing the need for a cleaner fuel transition, and strong commitment from several OEM manufacturers (primarily Toyota and Hyundai), there is currently a clear collective effort to promote the development and deployment of FCEVs.
Heavy-duty trucks and buses with fuel cells
The IDTechEx report focuses specifically on the markets for heavy-duty trucks and buses that operate demanding applications requiring long daily range, limited refueling time, and operational flexibility.
While this segment of the transportation industry also faces tightening emissions regulations, BEV solutions in these applications are potentially less feasible due to the weight and cost of the lithium-ion battery required to ensure a vehicle’s daily work cycle. These applications, therefore, offer a market segment where FCEVs could provide the only viable zero-emission solution.
The report delves into the issues surrounding the use of commercial vehicles with fuel cells, including capital expenditure costs, the impact of hydrogen, fuel acquisition costs, viability, and examples from current FCEV deployments.
Hydrogen consumption for FCEV trucks. IDTechEx compares various parameters from FC truck models. Source: IDTechEx
The report and its detailed market forecasts provide information for companies across the transportation value chain: fuel cell and electrolyzer manufacturers, battery and electric motor manufacturers, infrastructure developers for hydrogen refueling, parts and systems suppliers, along with companies in the energy sector, government agencies, research organizations, and individuals or companies looking to invest in technology that has the potential to become a crucial element in the effort to decarbonize the transportation industry.