Seventy-two hours ago, no one really knew what Causeway Solutions was. Now, it’s a hot topic in advertising circles. The spark? As is the custom these days, it came from a post by X’s official data account (@XData).
The post, which was captioned: “There’s a place for everyone in the global town square,” revealed that X’s U.S. user base includes 37 million Democrats, 32 million Republicans, and 34 million “swing voters” (people defined as undecided voters). The numbers were attributed to Causeway Solutions. CEO Linda Yaccarino then amplified these figures from her own account just before Elon Musk’s conversation on August 12 with former President Donald Trump that streamed on Spaces, X’s live audio tool.
Predictably, the revelation has set off alarms among ad execs, who are fretting about a potential Cambridge Analytica-style fiasco. Concerns are swirling that this data could be used for political profiling and manipulation without users’ consent, raising red flags for legal, ethical, and trust issues akin to those that Facebook faced during its scandal in 2016. Adding to the skepticism, some are questioning the accuracy of these numbers, suspecting they might be skewed by fake accounts.
To get to the bottom of all of this, and understand how Causeway Solutions amassed these figures, and whether it’s actually helping clients leverage them, Digiday decided to dig in.
What is Causeway Solutions?
Causeway Solutions is a data services and analytics company, headquartered in Metairie, Louisiana, whose tagline is #DataDoneRight.
According to the firm’s website, the company “provides centralized data warehousing solutions that identify, store, and analyze the data that is critical to your organization’s mission.”
Founded in 2013 by CEO Bill Skelly, Causeway emerged from Skelly’s 12-year tenure at the Republican National Committee (RNC), where he specialized in data management and analytics. Skelly’s vision for Causeway Solutions was to extend his expertise beyond the Republican party’s boundaries. Initially, Causeway focused primarily on political advertising for a range of clients like Donald Trump during his presidential race, Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio (a Republican) and the Republican National Committee, but over time, it has expanded its client base to include corporate, healthcare, and other sectors outside of politics.
Does that mean Causeway has ties to the Republican party?
Yes. The business is considered a Republican and conservative-first company by nature of the candidates and the campaigns the team works with politically. But as things stand, Causeway currently doesn’t have any contract with the RNC, according to Skelly.
OK, so why is everyone talking about Causeway?
It’s all about those numbers X posted, especially given this is an election year. They’ve set off a frenzy among industry execs, sparking a host of concerns: Are the numbers legitimate? How can they be accurate given the current uncertainties around X’s user base? And depending on all of this, is the industry watching the early stages of another Cambridge Analytica scandal unfold before them?
What’s the response from Causeway Solutions?
The company isn’t known for chatting with the press, but Skelly did break the silence to Digiday, offering a detailed explanation of what the data actually represents. After all, he wanted to clear up any misconceptions that have bubbled up since those numbers made headlines.
Causeway doesn’t have any direct first-party data from X. Instead, Causeway relies on large sample surveys, which they then cross-reference with voter files or digital databases that claim to cover most of the U.S. adult population. Essentially, they build models from their survey results and apply those models to the entire electorate — a method they use consistently, including for their Republican clients.
What’s a voter file? Isn’t voting information meant to be private?
Voter files are digital databases created by commercial organizations using official, publicly accessible government records on voter registration and past election turnout. These files offer a broad view of who is registered and who votes for which party, often enriched with data from other sources like consumer data vendors, credit bureaus, and political groups. They’re marketed as providing a detailed and comprehensive record for nearly every American adult.
However, while voter files can show whether someone voted in an election — and whether they have a registered party affiliation, they don’t reveal exactly who they voted for. That’s something you keep to yourself in the voting booth.
That sounds a bit shady.
While this practice isn’t illegal, it does raise data privacy concerns.
Back in March, Politico reported that in recent years, at least eight states had suggested bans on posting voter records publicly, but enabling them to be available on request. So far a few of those states have signed those bans into law. But despite data privacy being an increasingly national concern, legal challenges from conservative groups are overturning those laws. As a result, every voter’s records are being posted online, including details such as their names, addresses and birth dates.
Zach Edwards, senior threat analyst at Silent Push said he believes Congress needs to find a way to pass a federal law that amends The National Voter Registration Act (NVRA). The NVRA mandates that states must maintain accurate and current voter registration lists. Similarly, voters aren’t removed from those lists without a proper reason, such as death or moving out of the state.
“We need to find a healthy balance between voter transparency laws that empower organizations to monitor voter files for potential problems, while also carving out protections for people who don’t want marketing messages targeted based on voter data,” he explained. “Companies should not be able to generate a nationwide list of U.S. voters and sell it or share it haphazardly to other for-profit companies, without some control for the people whose voter data is being shared.”
Causeway’s website does state that its data analytics platform is HITRUST certified, meaning the business maintains the “highest standards for collecting, managing and safeguarding consumer data.” Typically, HITRUST certification addresses security privacy and regulatory challenges across various industries.
What is Causeway’s relationship with X?
The connection began earlier this year when one of Causeway’s partners gave a presentation in Washington, D.C. The focus was on where voters and consumers are getting their ad-based information. That event was also attended by some of the X leadership. One of the figures in that presentation highlighted X users, which got the X attendees excited because it reflected their own internal data, so they felt validated.
So are these numbers accurate?
They are and they aren’t.
They are, because the numbers came from the U.S. registered voter file which is publicly available from the Secretary of State’s office, and Causeway’s subscribers. Thinking about how that data is used, all of Causeway’s audiences are available in the public data marketplace on LiveRamp, The Trade Desk, and other digital platforms. That data is obfuscated and available for purchase.
The gray area is that these aren’t definitive. The numbers aren’t a complete analysis of X’s full user base. Nor do they differentiate between bots and humans, or active and idle users. Simply because the data didn’t come from X.
It’s just predictive modeling. There was no data collection without the consent of users whatsoever. Just some predictive models applied to publicly available data.
So if we look at those figures again: 37 million Democrats, 32 million Republicans and a further 34 million undecided voters — these aren’t definite. Causeway’s work would say that sure, there are “likely” to be 37 million Democrats, there are also “likely” to be 32 million Republicans, and a further 34 million users are “likely” to be undecided.
Are these numbers actually useful to X or advertisers?
For X, absolutely. They provided the platform with another attempt to dispel more headlines and try to portray that the platform is more diverse than the average user would probably think. Albeit, by not caveating that these are “likely” figures, it’s already thrown up another host of unanswered questions around the legitimacy of X’s actual user base and if X’s team can ever be trusted since going private, that X probably didn’t need.
As Christopher Spong, associate director of social media and communications at Collective Measures noted, X has earned a reputation as a right-wing echo chamber over the last two years by permitting more hate speech and banning users that criticized its new owner.
“Reading between the lines, this implies that the company recognizes that a vocal minority of far-right users have influenced our perception of X and its viability as an ad network,” he said. “What this doesn’t do, however, is quell any concerns about how hate speech and extremist viewpoints are monitored or moderated.”
For advertisers considering advertising on X, honestly, probably not very. As Josh Rosen, president of Hotspex Media said, X currently lacks the capacity to effectively target users based on these political leanings, making the data less useful for targeted marketing campaigns. “It raises further questions about the efficacy and intent behind touting such statistics because the data’s practical value for marketers is questionable,” he added.