In the latest Keystone State polling data, a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is revealed, with the vice president leading by just 3 points, falling within the margin of error. The breakdown of support for each candidate shows interesting coalitions forming, with Harris being favored by well-educated, affluent voters in major metropolitan areas, while Trump’s base seems to consist of less-educated, rural working-class individuals.
According to the Franklin & Marshall survey conducted between July 31 and August 11, Trump holds a significant lead over Harris among white voters without a college degree, with 53% supporting him compared to 35% for Harris. However, Harris makes up for this deficit with white voters who have completed college, garnering 62% support compared to Trump’s 28%.
The educational divide among voters is evident in the polling data, with Trump leading Harris among those with a high school education or less and some college education. Conversely, Harris leads Trump by a significant margin among voters with a college degree, highlighting the importance of education in shaping voter preferences.
Contrary to popular belief, the survey indicates that ethnicity may not be as significant a factor in determining presidential preference in Pennsylvania. Harris leads by 3 points among white voters, while Trump leads among nonwhite voters. This suggests that education may play a more critical role in shaping voter attitudes than ethnicity.
The survey also reveals that Trump is perceived as the working-class hero by many Pennsylvania voters, particularly those earning less than $35,000 a year. On the other hand, Harris is favored by voters with higher incomes, leading Trump by a significant margin among those making over $75,000 a year.
The concentration of Harris‘ support in urban areas is another key finding of the survey. Harris leads Trump by a wide margin in large central metro areas, while Trump dominates in more rural regions. This underscores the importance of voter turnout in urban areas for Harris to secure victory in Pennsylvania.
As the election approaches, it is clear that Pennsylvania will be a battleground state, with both candidates needing to mobilize their supporters effectively. Trump’s strength in rural areas must be balanced by Harris‘ support in population centers like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The outcome of the election may once again hinge on late-counted votes from urban areas, as was the case in the previous election.
In conclusion, the polling data from Pennsylvania paints a complex picture of voter preferences, with education, income, and geographic location all playing significant roles in shaping support for Harris and Trump. The race is expected to be closely contested, with both candidates needing to focus on turning out their respective bases to secure victory in this crucial swing state.