Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently made the decision to cancel a trip to Central Asia after earthquake scientists issued a warning for the country to prepare for a possible „megaquake“. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued the advisory following a magnitude 7.1 tremor in the south that resulted in eight people being injured. This development prompted Kishida to prioritize staying in Japan to oversee crisis management efforts.
The cancellation of Kishida’s trip, which included visits to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia for a regional summit, underscores the seriousness of the situation. In a statement to reporters, Kishida emphasized the importance of his role in crisis management and expressed understanding for the public’s anxiety in light of the JMA’s warning. The new advisory system was established in response to the devastating magnitude 9.0 earthquake in 2011 that led to a deadly tsunami and nuclear disaster.
While the likelihood of a major earthquake occurring is higher than normal, the JMA clarified that this does not guarantee that one will definitely happen. The recent earthquake off the southern island of Kyushu caused minor disruptions, such as shaking traffic lights and falling dishes, with eight individuals sustaining injuries from falling objects. Japan’s frequent seismic activity is attributed to its location atop four major tectonic plates, resulting in approximately 1,500 earthquakes annually, most of which are minor.
Despite the prevalence of earthquakes in Japan, the country’s advanced building techniques and well-practiced emergency procedures help mitigate the impact of larger tremors. However, the government has acknowledged the looming threat of a potential megaquake, estimating a 70 percent probability of one occurring within the next 30 years. Such an event could have catastrophic consequences, affecting a significant portion of Japan’s Pacific coastline and endangering an estimated 300,000 lives in a worst-case scenario.
Experts emphasize that while the risk of a second earthquake following a significant tremor is elevated, the actual likelihood remains low. Past instances, such as the 7.6-sized earthquake on the Noto Peninsula in 2001 and the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami, serve as stark reminders of the destructive power of natural disasters in Japan. The Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the 2011 earthquake, stands as a sobering example of the potential consequences of a megaquake.
Looking ahead, the potential epicenter of a future megaquake could be the Nankai Trough off eastern Japan, a region historically prone to major seismic events. The occurrence of large earthquakes in pairs, with magnitudes reaching eight or nine, underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparedness in the face of seismic risks. As Japan grapples with the looming threat of a megaquake, the government and its citizens remain steadfast in their commitment to disaster resilience and response efforts.
In conclusion, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision to cancel his trip to Central Asia underscores the gravity of the earthquake warning issued by scientists. The country’s history of seismic activity, coupled with the potential for a megaquake, highlights the importance of proactive disaster preparedness and response measures. As Japan navigates the complex landscape of natural disaster risks, the resilience and determination of its people serve as a testament to their unwavering spirit in the face of adversity.