Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, is facing a challenging situation with Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Kursk. Military analyst Sean Bell believes that Putin will be feeling „angry and potentially humiliated“ by this unexpected turn of events. Despite Ukrainian ambitions, Putin is unlikely to accept any negotiations involving the occupied territory and will instead deal with the situation „ruthlessly.“
At this point, Putin has two choices in how to respond to the invasion of Kursk. He can either play to Ukraine’s agenda and bolster Kursk’s defenses with elite units from the frontline in the Donbas, or he can move fresh troops down from the Lithuanian border and up from Crimea. However, Bell points out that these troops will not be battle-hardened, which could put them at a disadvantage against the Ukrainian forces who are on the front foot.
Bell draws a parallel to the Second World War, noting that the Blitzkrieg tactic was successful because of battle-hardened troops. Without such troops, Russia may struggle to effectively counter the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. Ukraine’s initial deployment of soldiers and tanks has allowed them to make significant progress in the region, catching Russia off guard.
Ukraine also faces a dilemma in how to proceed in Kursk. They can try to hold onto parts of the territory and risk being defeated, or they can eventually withdraw, leaving Putin guessing about where they may strike next along Russia’s border. This uncertainty could force Putin to reinforce other areas, potentially easing pressure on the frontline in Kursk.
Bell describes Ukraine’s actions as a „masterstroke,“ highlighting the importance of momentum and initiative on the frontline. By seizing the opportunity in Kursk, Ukraine has demonstrated that Russia is not in complete control of the situation. This could have a significant impact on the morale of Russian troops on the frontline.
It is important to note, however, that Ukraine has only seized a small fraction of Russian territory in Kursk, compared to the significant portion of Ukraine controlled by Moscow. While some may view this as a bargaining chip for negotiations, Bell believes that Putin is unlikely to entertain any form of negotiation regarding the occupied territory. Instead, he will likely deal with the situation decisively and without compromise.
In conclusion, the invasion of Kursk by Ukraine has created a complex and challenging situation for Vladimir Putin and Russia. The dynamics of the conflict, including the lack of battle-hardened troops and the strategic decisions facing both sides, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this confrontation. As tensions escalate, the world watches closely to see how Putin will respond to this unexpected challenge on Russia’s doorstep.