Israel’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon have dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, destroying about half of the weapons that the militia had accumulated over more than three decades. According to senior Israeli and American officials, this has weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities, but the group still maintains a formidable arsenal with tens of thousands of projectiles scattered across Lebanon.
Hezbollah has been using these weapons to fire mainly into northern Israel since last October. In response, Israel had been making strikes in southern Lebanon, forcing tens of thousands of Lebanese to flee. However, Israeli leaders decided to launch devastating strikes to destroy as much of the arsenal as possible so that the Israelis who had fled northern Israel could return safely. The Israeli Air Force began these strikes around September 17.
Hezbollah, with support from Iran, took three decades to build up its stockpile, estimated to be anywhere from 120,000 to 200,000 projectiles. After the initial attacks, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, asked Iran and Syria to replenish the arsenal. This led to Israel’s decision to target Mr. Nasrallah in an attempt to disrupt the group’s efforts to rebuild its arsenal.
Following Mr. Nasrallah’s killing, Lebanese officials have heeded Israel’s demands to turn away Iranian planes trying to fly into Beirut, complicating Hezbollah’s efforts to acquire additional arms quickly. On Tuesday, the Israeli military announced that it had killed the Hezbollah commander responsible for arms transfers from Iran to Lebanon, Muhammad Jaafar Qasir, in an airstrike in Beirut.
The United States, Qatar, and Egypt have been unsuccessful in brokering a cease-fire agreement in Gaza, which has contributed to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel has now initiated ground operations in Lebanon, with the intention of destroying Hezbollah missile caches and launch vehicles.
Despite the significant damage inflicted on Hezbollah’s leadership and arsenal, the group still poses a threat to Israel. American officials believe that Israel’s operations may not result in a strategic gain unless key factors such as the duration of Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon, Iran’s counterattacks, Hezbollah’s response, and political developments in Beirut are taken into account.
Hezbollah’s tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon presents a challenge for Israel, as it is difficult to destroy without a long-term presence in the country. Some American officials are skeptical about the long-term effectiveness of a military campaign in Lebanon, as they believe that Hezbollah’s leadership can be easily replaced and that a new leader may not exercise the same caution as Mr. Nasrallah.
In conclusion, Israel’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities, but the group still poses a threat to Israel. The ongoing conflict highlights the complex dynamics in the region and the challenges involved in addressing the root causes of the conflict.