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Soovitus juhtidele: raamat „Ultra Society“ Peter Turchi poolt

Javier Milei’s return with a full beard raises the question of whether Arnold Rüütel was a fan of Elvis Presley. Engelbert Humperdinck claims that Elvis borrowed his beard from him. Unfortunately, no connection between Milei and Humperdinck could be found. The circle remains open.

Milei’s actions prove that stagnation can reach a point where the uncertainty of radical reforms outweighs the desire for stability. Collaboration is one of the topics where a radical approach can offer better solutions than comfort zones or optimism vitamins. There is not a single company or organization that cannot be improved by collaboration. Often, colleagues are hated more than clients or partners. Where then should we look for greater changes?

In management, there is plenty of short-term tactical band-aids offered to patch up collaboration wounds. However, some injuries require a strategic approach and long-term treatment. Hand cream softens rough and cracked hands, but collagen and proper nutrition heal the skin rather than just treating symptoms. Peter Turchin is becoming a leading scientific analyst in making sense of society. His book „End Times“ was The Times‘ best thought book in 2023. Turchin is a biologist turned social scientist who has founded his cliodynamics school, which predicts societal developments and changes using mathematical and statistical methods. Among his successes is the 2010 prediction of the 2020 turbulence in the USA and the world.

Collaboration requires common goals. If „End Times“ is a thought-provoking book, then „Ultra Society,“ published in 2016, seeks long-term treatment for collaboration problems rather than just alleviating symptoms. The main postulate is the observation that (competitive) war is the basis of collaboration. Like it or not, collaboration requires common goals. The simplest example in business is market share growth at the expense of a competitor.

Moving beyond goals, the picture becomes increasingly complex. Why did communities in ancient times voluntarily erect unnecessary monuments, such as Göbekli Tepe or Poverty Point? The important thing was not the structure but the collaboration and sense of community. In nature, choices are even harsher. Ants and bees solve collaboration through a common mother and clear division of labor. The second anthill ants are often eaten.

Evolution and development are possible only when communities or societies fight and compete with each other, resulting in the survival of collectives with better collaboration skills. However, development requires cultural heterogeneity, meaning that the winning culture dominates the loser after the war. Fratricidal war is unfortunately an evolutionary dead end.

An example of the contradictions of evolutionary selection comes from the infamous Enron. One of the causes of its downfall was every leader’s favorite – performance reviews. For Enron’s ideologue Skilling, this was the glue of collaboration, but in reality, it was acetone. Skilling amplified internal competition with the performance review system, killing any desire in employees to collaborate. Ironically, he borrowed the ideology from Dawkins‘ book „The Selfish Gene.“

Collaboration is fragile. One of the safest and friendliest countries to travel in the 1960s was Afghanistan. The reason was collaboration in ensuring security at the community and tribal levels, not at the state level. The central government was weak, so local solutions were found. But size matters, as it provides both military and competitive advantages. In some cases, the golden mean evolutionarily may not be possible.

Turchin has an answer to the emergence of superpowers and corporations and central authority. In war, the size of the army gives a disproportionately large advantage according to Lanchester’s laws. A twice as large army provides exponential firepower. This time the circle closes. As a side note, it is very rare for a military or company leader to step down after winning a battle.

Sports statistics prove that teams with more equal salaries win more games than overpaid stars. Or the tiki-taka example from football. Teams that pass more win more. Inequality reduces the desire to collaborate and increases violence. The rules of warfare also apply to sports. Internal competition within a team reduces and competition between teams increases collaboration.

Collaboration is in turn a function of trust, and the most important factor increasing trust is the behavior and values of parents, which in turn give collaboration a cultural dimension. In conclusion, religion increases and promotes collaboration.

Collaboration is much easier to destroy than to maintain. Organisms and companies with better collaboration win over weaker ones. Without collaboration, there is no collective, community, company, organization, or in extreme cases, a country.

If the inherited house (read: company) cracks, Harvard case study plaster may be enough, but if it sinks, it may be more practical to build a new house on a permanent foundation. If collaboration needs to be rebuilt systematically, read Turchin’s scientific treatment.

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