The global advertising expenditure outlook for 2024/25 from WARC promises a very positive development, with advertising investments expected to grow by more than ten percent. According to experts from WARC, advertising spending will increase by 10.5 percent this year, surpassing one trillion dollars (1.07 trillion USD). This marks the best result in the last six years, excluding the non-standard year-on-year surge in growth following the COVID-19 pandemic (+27.9%).
Looking ahead, the longer-term outlook is also optimistic, with a growth expected to exceed seven percent next year, reaching a value of 1.23 trillion dollars. Over the past decade, global advertising investments have more than doubled, growing 2.8 times faster than global economic performance since 2014. Just three companies – Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet – account for more than 70 percent of these incremental expenditures. It is expected that this trio will attract 43.6 percent of all advertising spending this year and surpass 46 percent by 2026.
WARC’s forecasts show that „purely“ internet companies (online only) will see a 14 percent increase in advertising revenue this year, reaching a total of 735.7 billion dollars. Nearly nine out of ten advertising „gains“ this year will go to online-only companies, with more than half (52.9%) going to Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. Together, online companies are expected to represent more than 70 percent of all global advertising expenditures next year.
Retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%), and search (+12.1%) will lead digital growth this year, with more than 85 percent of online expenditures going to these three areas, accounting for almost three out of every five (58.7%) incremental dollars spent on advertising this year. All of these areas benefit from the wider adoption of AI-based advertising services and the increasing importance of first-party data.
Social media, with a value of 241.8 billion dollars in 2024, is the largest advertising channel according to WARC’s study. Last year, it surpassed search (excluding retail media) for the first time. This year, social media accounts for 22.6 percent of all global advertising expenditures, and its share is expected to increase to 23.6 percent by the end of 2026. Within social networks, Meta is the largest individual player, controlling 62.6 percent of the market this year. However, its share is decreasing, mainly due to Douyin (the Chinese version of the TikTok platform owned by Bytedance) and TikTok (also owned by Bytedance). Meta now accounts for one-fifth of social media spending. TikTok is on track to generate more than half of its parent company’s advertising revenue next year, despite the ongoing uncertain future of the platform in the US, its largest market with 170 million monthly active users.
Advertising expenditures in Europe are expected to increase by five percent this year to 164.9 billion dollars. In the UK, which is the largest European market according to expenditures, an eight percent increase to 38.5 billion pounds (47.5 billion USD) is expected for 2024. On the continent, healthy growth is expected in France (+8%), Italy (+5.4%), and Germany (+4%) this year, with France benefiting from increased advertising activity associated with the Olympic Games.
In conclusion, the global advertising landscape is set for significant growth in the coming years, driven by digital channels and the dominance of key players like Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. With the increasing importance of data and AI in advertising, the industry is evolving rapidly, presenting both challenges and opportunities for advertisers and marketers worldwide.