As Canadians gear up for a run at the fall housing market and existing homeowners with a mortgage renewal looming, experts are predicting that interest rates may be heading down in the weeks ahead due to recent market volatility. The recent global selloff triggered by weak jobs data in the United States has caused fluctuations in both the stock and bond markets, impacting fixed mortgage rates.
The five-year government of Canada bond yield, which lenders use to determine their five-year fixed-rate mortgages, briefly dipped below three per cent this week for the first time since last spring. Penelope Graham, a mortgage expert at Ratehub, explains that during times of stock market volatility, investors often turn to the bond market as a safe haven. This influx of investors drives bond prices higher and yields lower, influencing fixed mortgage rates.
Graham notes that fixed rates have already been decreasing in recent weeks as a result of easing in the bond market, linked to expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. With the central bank recently implementing interest rate cuts and leaving room for more cuts in the future, bond yields have been on a downward trend since May. This trend has led to the lowest rate on an insured, five-year fixed mortgage being 4.29 per cent, a level not seen since last spring.
Market watchers are now anticipating that the Bank of Canada may accelerate its rate cuts in the coming months, potentially driving bond yields even lower and affecting variable mortgage rates. Benjamin Reitzes, director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, suggests that the markets are pricing in additional rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could lead to further easing of interest rates.
Eitan Pinsky, a mortgage expert at Pinsky Mortgages, explains that when bond yields decrease, insured mortgages typically see rate reductions first. It may take a few weeks to a couple of months for other fixed rates to adjust to changes in the bond market. Victor Tran, a mortgage and real estate expert at Ratesdotca, adds that major lenders are likely to wait for bond yields to stabilize before adjusting their rates.
In the current competitive mortgage market, lenders are offering special rates to attract borrowers. Pinsky advises borrowers to shop around and negotiate with major lenders for better rates. While the majority of clients are opting for three-year fixed-rate mortgages, Pinsky suggests considering variable rate options for flexibility. Variable rates may be higher currently, but they offer the opportunity to benefit from potential interest rate cuts in the future.
Ultimately, when choosing a mortgage, it’s essential to consider not only the interest rate but also other factors like prepayment penalties and mortgage features. By staying informed and exploring all options, Canadians can make the most of the current market conditions and secure a favorable mortgage deal.